Publications
South Africa's 2029 Election: The Rough Birth of a New Order
South Africa’s ANC, which has ruled the country with strong majorities since the end of apartheid in 1994, was driven to within a hair’s breadth of 40% support in the national election held on 29 May. It must now choose between pivoting to the centre or to the populist left, a decision which will determine the country’s fate for decades to come.
Published 18 June 2024
Greg Mills
Director, The Brenthurst Foundation
Ray Hartley
Research Director, The Brenthurst Foundation
The voters have had their say and, as predicted by The Brenthurst Foundation in March, the African National Congress has been cut down to around 40% with the official opposition, Democratic Alliance, the only established party to show growth, although this growth was limited by a thousand cuts by tiny parties.
The rise of MK – also predicted in our March poll to emerge as the third largest party – has created a new populist dynamic, although some of its growth was at the expense of the EFF.
As the coalition talks get underway, here are five takeaways from this historic 2024 election.
