Russia’s War in Ukraine: What should this conflict teach us?

The world has suddenly become a very dangerous place. Horrific new wars with major international consequences are erupting with greater frequency. As Russia’s imperial machine pursued its war of conquest in Ukraine and Ethiopia struggled to end a murderous civil war, the Israel-Palestine conflict entered a brutal phase dominated by horrific new terror tactics and brutal reprisals.

In Africa’s Sahel, coups threatened a new era of continental conflict.

Growing instability results from an era of serial mistakes by policy makers. The victory of the Taliban over internationally-sponsored government forces in Afghanistan and the invasion of Ukraine by the Russian Federation in the space of less than six months between August 2021 and February 2022 highlights contemporary failings.

How then to win a modern war? The answer, of course, depends on what type of war it is.

Low intensity conflict in Afghanistan or Africa fought by people in slip-slops armed with cell-phones, Kalashnikovs, and RPG7s and transported on pick-up trucks offers different answers to that fought between industrialised nations with high-tech Intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance systems and guided-missile technology.

Even when the military struggle is settled, why is it that we often fail to win the peace, with more than half of all post-conflict countries returning to war within a decade?

These questions are particularly relevant for poorer countries, most of which are in Africa, a continent that is increasingly the site of coups d’etat and failed states. The toxic intersection of failing economies, booming populations and dashed expectations produces chronic instability and insurrection. Donors have not turned the tide of social insecurity, migration and poverty as many leave in search of a better life in other African countries or across the Mediterranean. More than two-thirds of extreme poor worldwide are living in conflict-affected areas.

The burning question of today is: On the basis of past lessons, and predictions about the future, what qualities of leadership, intelligence, diplomacy, economic assistance, and war-fighting will be required to ensure security?

Two of the world’s foremost security specialists look at trends in AI, cyber security, private security, and between multilateral and unilateral agency, and offer solutions to both winning the war and winning the peace.