New Survey Shows Coalition Government More Likely as ANC Support Crashes

The ANC’s support has dropped from the 48% measured in November 2022 to just 41% in October this year with voters citing joblessness, corruption, load shedding, and crime as the country’s largest problems.

Some 57% of voters cited ‘The ANC government of the last three decades’ as the principal cause of South Africa’s problems. This is up from 51% who blamed the ANC a year ago.

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The survey found that the Multi-Party Coalition which combines the votes of the DA, IFP, ActionSA, FF+ and the United Independent Movement, would get 36% of the vote, ushering in an era of fierce political competition. Some 24% of voters said the launch of the MPC made them more likely to vote for an opposition party. This suggests there may be significant voter support upside in greater name recognition for the MPC and greater clarity on its policy focus and narrative.

The survey was conducted through in-depth interviews with a random sample of 1,500 voters in October 2023.

The survey showed a marked decline in President Cyril Ramaphosa’s favourability rating from 48% last year to 42% this year. Those rating him unfavourable rose from 32% a year ago to 40%.

The vast majority of respondents (74%) would be happy to see a coalition of parties govern South Africa.

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South Africans believe that association with the West and other democracies (40%) would benefit the South African economy more than alignment with BRICS (28%), calling South Africa's foreign policy investment in BRICS into question.

Rising support for the EFF – up from 11% a year ago to 17%, and declining support for the ANC portends a greater possibility of an EFF-ANC coalition, raising questions for the moderate centre about its political options.